Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
